Study of Convergence and Divergence of EAEU Integration Processes Based on the Gini Index

Regionalization and participation at the integration associations represent a typical way of national economic development. To be inside an integration process allows member states to address better their socio-economic problems and political coordination. The stability and resilience of integration associations are critical to their success. In this optic the integration associations may be subjects convergence and divergence. These phenomena may be envisaged in the income inequality of the participating countries.

Aim. To study the features and prospects of the socio-economic convergence within the EEU member states, the EEU strategic contour and within the main trends of integration processes in Eurasia.

Task. The tasks are following. The first one is to study the sustainability of the EEU and within its strategic contours formed by agreements on free trade zones through the convergent and divergent trends assessment. The second task is to conduct a comparative analysis of Eurasian integration to the European Union and ASEAN development.

Methods. Assess the level and dynamics of income inequality among the EEU states and samples of states with which the EEU has agreements on free trade zones, which are the CIS, Serbia, Vietnam, Iran and Singapore, as well as states with which such agreements are planned to be concluded in the near future. This list of the EEU’s prospect partners includes Egypt, Israel and India, based on the Gini index, using the European Union and ASEAN as reference parameters. Use calculations to interpret the processes of convergence and divergence of various types of integration processes.

Results. The estimates showed, in general, a significant interpretive potential of the interstate Gini index. The study particular results demonstrated that the EEU has a level of convergence comparable to the level of the EU before the accession of a large array of states in 2004. The level of convergence of the CIS, estimated using the Gini index, is comparable to the current level of the European Union. It was also revealed that both in the EU and in the CIS, the reduction in inequality over the selected analysis interval does not have a clear prospect. Calculations also showed the convergence of states within the EEU and its strategic contours to be sensitive to external shocks, while the convergence of ASEAN states is more directed.

Conclusions. The approach used by the authors to assess the convergence of integration processes based on the calculation of the interstate Gini index explains with sufficient completeness the reasons for the successful development of the EEU and its sustainability. At the same time, the use of the interstate Gini index for the analysis of convergence and divergence of integration processes made it possible to conclude that the integration models of the states of the Global North and the Global South are diverse.

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