FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
MAIN THING
Aim. Substantiation of the thesis on the need to increase the annual growth of the EAEU economy by 6–8% through the implementation of a unified strategy for the accelerated development of target indicators as the level of economic development converges, their sustainable convergence and the activation of the existing production and scientific and technical potential of the Union Member States. At the same time, the nationally oriented financial policy of the Bank of Russia should play an important role.
Tasks. Rationale:
– the need to supplement the target development scenario presented in the Guidelines for the Economic Development of the EAEU until 2030 with a strategy for accelerated development and solving national security problems;
– formation of a nationwide macroeconomic policy, including its monetary component;
– carrying out deoffshorization of the economy and stopping the unauthorized export of capital;
– supplementing the Eurasian economic integration with monetary, monetary, educational, scientific and technical policies and the transition to national currencies in mutual trade and investment in the EAEU, CIS, BRICS, SCO.
Methods. Macroeconomic modeling, methods of mathematical statistics, big data analysis, demographic analysis.
Results. The necessity of a significant refinement of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy of Russia, which ensures its entry into the sixth technological order and the irreversible convergence of the production and scientific and technical potential of the EAEU member states, is substantiated.
Conclusion. The proposed comprehensive approach will make it possible to fully implement the adopted Strategic Directions for the Development of Eurasian Economic Integration until 2025, lay the foundations for a new stage of integration with the achievement of significant milestones set in the interests of the countries and peoples of our integration association.
Aim. Based on the analysis of Winston Churchill’s Fulton speech and the project “The Unthinkable” initiated by him, we can trace the causes of the unavoidability and, moreover, the aggravation of the confrontation between the collective West and modern Russia.
Tasks. Analysis of the course of the history of the post-war world from the unification of the Western world against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, initiated by Winston Churchill’s Fulton speech, as well as the revival of the “Iron Curtain” — a global barrier between the collective West and the entire non-Western world entangled in a network of hybrid warfare.
Methods. The historical method, the method of civilizational and cultural analysis were applied, content analysis and event analysis of Churchill’s Fulton speech were carried out, allowing to analyze the intentions and identify the true goals of the author and the hidden meaning of his speech, which affect the global political discourse.
Results. It is argued that it is necessary to take into account historical analogies that make it possible to reveal the deep meaning of strategic planning of the policy of peace as opposed to the policy of war both in the Eurasian space and throughout the world.
Conclusions. Judgments are formulated about the growing geopolitical tension between the collective West and the entire non-Western world in the networks of hybrid warfare.
ECONOMY
In the context of the development of a new round of the global economic crisis, the growth of regional and global instability, the factor of importance of improving the tools for the integration development of the Eurasian Economic Union is extremely acute. Strategic planning is one of the most important mechanisms for improving integration processes. It is the long-term development documents that are able to foresee and successfully coordinate the problems of wealth inequality, the quality of living standards, the access of various social strata of society to financial services, etc. However, such program documents are doomed to failure without the presence of reasonable priorities, focused mainly on the implementation of structural changes in the economies of the EAEU and its potential new members, as well as today’s observers of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Aim. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of long-term socio-economic planning and forecasting within the boundaries of the EAEU. A mechanism of “transinstitutional cooperation” is proposed, focused on strengthening integration ties through institutional transformations. The macro-regional approach is considered as an effective model of cooperation between states within the framework of various socio-economic tools.
Task. Thus, the objectives of the study were: to demonstrate the tools for the development of “transinstitutional interaction” within the boundaries of the Eurasian Economic Union, to give examples of such cooperation based on the possible cooperation of the EAEU countries with potential members of the union (Uzbekistan), as well as to analyze the legislative framework and the accumulated experience of “strategizing” in borders of the Eurasian economic integration.
Methods. The research methods are comparative analysis when comparing the standard and interregional approaches of “transinstitutional interaction” for the development of the EAEU states, the method of expert assessments — when developing recommendations for improving the mechanisms of strategic planning in the Russian Federation, methods of structural and logical analysis — when determining the priority tools in the development of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Uzbekistan.
Results. As a result, the main challenges of the EAEU in terms of improving the strategic planning tool were identified. A mechanism of “transinstitutional cooperation” is proposed, focused on strengthening integration ties through institutional transformations. The macro-regional approach is considered as an effective model of cooperation between states within the framework of various socio-economic tools. The prospects for integration ties between the EAEU countries and the Republic of Uzbekistan are analyzed in order to analyze the possibilities of unifying strategic planning mechanisms within the framework of “transinstitutional cooperation”. Recommendations are given for improving the strategic planning of the Russian Federation as a locomotive state in the development of strategic planning in the EAEU.
Conclusion. As the data presented in the paper show, the member states of the EAEU+ (Eurasian integration countries + observer countries + potential members of the union — Uzbekistan) face similar problems with regard to the strategic development of their territories. The “transinstitutional approach” presented by the authors will allow the members of the Eurasian Economic Union to unite in solving socio-economic challenges, to systematize efforts towards improving the mechanisms of socioeconomic development, significantly saving on the “scale effect” in the search for new socio-economic tools, testing its effectiveness and process control of achieved indicators.
The article reviews current scholarship and debates on state capitalism as well as studies of this phenomenon in Russia.
Aim. This article aims to review current scholarly debates on state intervention in the Russian economy and identify key positions in this field.
Tasks. In the second part of the article, we review the existing research on state capitalism in Russia.
Methods. This article compares scholars’ positions and identifies divisions in the field.
Results. In the second part of the article, we show that, since the early 2000s, Russia was widely seen as a paradigmatic case of the state’s return to interventionist policies. We demonstrate that the first wave of studies in the 2000s, with a few exceptions, considered state capitalism in Russia to be an instrument of patronage and rent-seeking. However, subsequent research questioned this claim. State capitalism in Russia was now seen as an instrument of solving social problems, particularly in monotowns, a geopolitical tool and a way of defending national sovereignty, as well as a vehicle for financialization.
Conclusion. Multiple empirical studies of state capitalism in Russia published in the 2010s demonstrate its complexity and versatility. However, the results of empirical research are yet to be systematized and the Russian political economy still lacks a macro analysis that would consider all of its structural and institutional dimensions.
The article deals with the problems of cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the energy sector.
Aim and tasks. To identify the main causes of problems and difficulties in the process of cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the context of modern international relations based on the analysis of expert assessments of Chinese and Russian scientists on the prospects for energy cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation.
Methods. The comparative method, the method of generalization and expert analysis were used as research methods.
Results. When considering the problems of energy cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation, it was noted that, despite the objectively favorable conditions for interaction, there are difficulties in the implementation of specific energy cooperation projects: the lack of long-term energy strategic planning, the insufficient level of mutual trust between the two countries, a certain inconsistency in the position of the government and specific enterprises, as well as the impact of fierce competition in the international energy market.
Conclusions. For the rapid and stable development of Sino-Russian energy cooperation, China and Russia need to strengthen mutual trust through the expansion of comprehensive meetings and consultations, convergence of the legislative framework, which will make it possible to strengthen the position of energy cooperation in the face of growing sanctions pressure from the United States and its allies.
The problem of poverty of the UN is put forward in the category of the most urgent and acute world problems inherent in most countries. Poverty reduction is an important priority goal of the social policy of many countries, including Rus sia. Ways to reduce poverty are being sought, and national strategies are being developed to overcome this problem. In recent years, China has demonstrated success in the fight against poverty, is recognized as a world leader in terms of the results achieved in this direction.
Aim. To study China’s experience in reducing mass poverty, which is significant for the social practices of other countries.
Tasks. Analyze China’s public policies to reduce poverty, strategies in solving the problem, social programs, measures of social support for low-income categories of citizens in the social security system. Review the results achieved, as well as the tasks set by the country in this direction for the future.
Methods. The study uses a set of general scientific methods, such as analysis, synthesis, generalization, comparison, system-functional and integrated approach.
Results. The results of the study of the state policy of China to reduce poverty as one of the most acute world problems are presented. The analysis made it possible to identify the state of the poverty problem in China in the dynamics over the past forty years, to highlight its features, scales and zones of concentration. The specifics of the modern strategic approach of the state policy of China both in the field of overcoming poverty and in the field of providing state social assistance to low-income categories of citizens are analyzed. The results of the analysis of the level of poverty in the country allow us to highlight the positive results achieved by the country to date.
Conclusion. Conclusions are formulated about possible further difficulties in solving the problem of overcoming poverty in China due to the aging of the population and the growth of demographic disproportion in its composition.
LAW
The article considers new approaches to the creation of a corruption research system. The authors point out that modern economic and legal methods for calculating corruption indices either do not take into account all manifestations of corruption or are highly influenced by political factors. The authors substantiate the need to apply a unified methodology for studying the level of corruption within the framework of the EAEU.
Aim. Propose at the EAEU level the use of a comprehensive economic and legal methodology for studying the level of corruption, which, along with traditional methods, involves the active use of an artificial intelligence system — storage, transmission and processing of big data to detect corruption manifestations.
Tasks. Determine the legal and economic foundations for studying the level of corruption in the Russian Federation and in the EAEU countries, as well as identify legal problems that impede the creation of uniform standards for studying corruption in the EAEU countries.
Methods. In this study, methods of comparative law, methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of deduction and induction were used.
Results. In the course of the study, the authors come to the conclusion that there are a number of problematic economic and legal aspects both at the national level and at the international level in the field of corruption research. These problems are expressed in the absence of unified national and international standards that allow an impartial assessment of the level of corruption in the EAEU countries.
Conclusion. As a result of the analysis of the identified problems, the authors propose ways to solve them through the creation of unified information economic and legal systems in the field of corruption research within the framework of the EAEU.
The article conducts a study to determine the mechanism of effective legal regulation of the content of foreign trade contracts when establishing mutually beneficial relations between participants in a foreign economic transaction who are subjects of law of different states by type of economic activity in accordance with and in accordance with the terms agreed by the parties on the basis of the applicable norms of national and international law and the legislation of the countries regulating these legal relations in foreign economic activity.
Aim. To propose the most optimal directions for improving the legal regulation of the content of foreign trade contracts in the system of international integration.
Tasks. To determine the legal basis for regulating foreign trade contracts in modern integration processes; to investigate the legal aspects, specifics and procedure for concluding foreign trade contracts, as well as to identify legal problems that hinder the development of these legal relations.
Methods. In this research we used methods of comparative law, methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of deduction and induction.
Results. In the course of the study, the authors come to the conclusion that there are some problematic aspects of both national and international regulation in the field of foreign trade contracts. These problems are expressed in the absence of a single legal regulation for the conclusion and execution of foreign trade contracts, the presence of specific requirements for the content of the contract in different countries, and as a result, the appearance of conflicts at the stage of agreement of the text of the contract by partners from different countries, as well as in the absence of a single legal mechanism ensuring fair resolution of disputes between the parties to the contract.
Conclusion. As a result of the analysis of the actual problems associated with the lack of the necessary comprehensive legal regulation of the content of foreign trade contracts, the authors propose optimal ways to solve them by harmonizing legislation at the international level in order to humanely and fairly bring together the legislations of states and establish comparable regulatory legal regulation in relation to the legal regulation of the content, conclusion and execution of a foreign trade contract.
POLICY
This study discusses the results of using multidimensional statistical procedures in the analysis of development prospects and the state of regional integration of the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the horizon of 2030.
Aim. Determine the development prospects and effectiveness of regional organizations, ASEAN and EAEU, as of 2030.
Tasks. To identify the current trend in the development of the processes of regional cooperation and integration of the ASEAN countries and the EAEU countries, to determine and predict the state of the processes of regional cooperation and integration of the discussed regional associations in the context of the types and scenarios for the development of regional organizations proposed by the Eurasian Development Bank.
Methods. The study used the work of the Eurasian Development Bank, the Regional Integration Database (RIDB), the open data of the World Bank, and the data of the ASEAN statistical portal. The research methodology was based on the assumption that, based on multivariate statistical procedures, it is possible to establish a different in time, the position of a regional organization in its relatively homogeneous group. The group (cluster) was taken (taken) in accordance with a typology provided by the Center for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank. The construction of time series models was carried out in accordance with the ARIMA methodology.
Results. With the help of cluster analysis, similarities and differences were determined in relation to the distance of the object under study to the center of a homogeneous reference group. Thus, it was possible to establish the position of regional international organizations, ASEAN and EAEU, differing in time in their relatively homogeneous group. In addition, the processes of regional cooperation and integration are non-linear and non-unidirectional, accompanied byboth convergence and divergence.
Conclusion. With regard to ASEAN, the possibility of reducing its effectiveness as a regional organization in the perspective of 2030 has been established, this situation is explained by the implementation of the hedging policy by the key actors in the region in the context of the growing competition between the United States and China.
With regard to the EAEU, it has been established that the organization in the horizon of 2030 has significant opportunities for its development as an active organization in the post-Soviet space. However, such a prospect will depend on timely actions of the Russian Federation that meet the challenges and threats of sanctions pressure.
This study is devoted to the consideration of the peculiarities of the policy of the EAEU states in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of global technological confrontation.
Aim. To identify the key directions of the strategy of the EAEU member states in the field of AI, as well as to identify priority policy directions in this area at the union level.
Tasks. To analyze the results of the development of the AI industry in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, to consider the main economic indicators, achievements in the creation of computing infrastructure, the development of their own research and development in the field of AI, to identify the main provisions of the key official documents of the EAEU member states in the field of AI. To identify the main directions of AI policy at the Union level.
Methods. Research of official documents and on the basis of information and analytical technologies, comparative analysis, content analysis, inductive method using approaches of critical geopolitics.
Results. The study showed that the policy of the EAEU countries in the field of AI is characterized by a focus on external technologies and investments, the creation of hotbeds of technological growth, largely due to the efforts of large commercial organizations around which the AI ecosystem is being built, including infrastructure, education and R&D. In conditions of relatively small domestic investments, the implementation of research and development results is largely associated with participation in international outsourcing projects. Against the background of increasingly escalating global technological competition, it is of paramount importance for the EAEU to strengthen its own technological sovereignty and to develop as soon as possible a unified union policy in the field of the most advanced technologies, including in the field of AI, as a conceptual basis for the development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation formats both within the EAEU itself and with other countries.
Conclusions. International cooperation in high-tech spheres is becoming particularly relevant not only in the context of the accelerating transition to a new technological order, but also against the background of escalating trends of decoupling, concentration of technologies, tightening of sanctions policy. For the EAEU, the development of a unified AI policy is of priority importance, which will contribute to the intensification of scientific and technical cooperation, strengthening integration potential and technological sovereignty.
This study is based on the thesis that ensuring a favorable socio-political environment is one of the priority tasks of both society as a whole and law enforcement agencies of the state. The study is aimed at studying the situation of young people as the most vulnerable representatives of society in the face of dangerous ideological phenomena, unable to withstand these challenges.
Aim. Identify measures that can counteract extremism and terrorism in the digital space among young people.
Tasks. Consider the current legislation of the Russian Federation, on the basis of which educational and career guidance activities are carried out among the younger generation. To study the practice of applying measures aimed at countering extremism and terrorism. Evaluate the measures applied in practice and make suggestions for their improvement and updating.
Methods. The current regulatory legal acts that are used in the implementation of educational programs to counter extremism and terrorism are analyzed. Career-oriented practices, programs of higher and additional education applied on the territory of the Russian Federation are also subject to consideration.
Results. Within the framework of higher educational institutions, active work is carried out with students, which is expressed both in the preparation of scientific and pedagogical personnel for subsequent work with students, and information and discussion platforms are organized. Particular attention is paid to the work to involve students in practical activities in the framework of security.
Conclusions. Information and educational work with young people in the framework of countering extremism and terrorism is carried out in sufficient volume. But the measures that can ensure the safety of the younger generation on the Internet are not sufficient, which it seems possible to make up for by creating and spreading the practices of cyber teams and involving students in working with digital platforms under the guidance of mentors from among the scientific and pedagogical staff of educational institutions.
Aim. To identify the features of the behavior of external actors in the South Caucasus during the Second Karabakh War and rank them according to the degree of influence on the events, outcomes, and settlement of the post-conflict situation.
Tasks. To find out the main reasons for Armenia’s military defeat, as well as the extent of involvement in the armed conflict and post-conflict settlement of Turkey, Great Britain, Iran, the USA, France, the OSCE Minsk Group and the EU.
Methods. Among the techniques and ways to achieve the stated goal of the study, the methods of comparative analysis, which allowed by comparing the degree of involvement and role in the conflict to identify beneficiaries and the most promising applicants for participation in post-conflict settlement; structural and functional analysis aimed at identifying connections, relationships and mediations between the participants of the events under consideration.
Results. The analysis of the interested and motivated behavior of Turkey, Iran, the UK, the USA, France, the Minsk Group, and the EU in the 44-day armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was carried out. An attempt is made to rank external actors according to the degree of influence on the course and outcome of the war; the main reasons for Armenia’s military defeat are established; Iran’s behavior and role in the conditions of war and post-conflict settlement are characterized; Azerbaijan’s support in the conflict by the countries of the Turkic Council is shown; the involvement of Turkey and Great Britain in the war is established; The role of Russia in the end of the war was determined; the positions of the USA and France as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group were clarified; the EU’s application for mediation in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions was assessed.
Conclusions. Contrary to numerous opinions about the paralysis of Russia’s political will in the South Caucasus, it was Russia that, following the results of the Second Karabakh War, managed to strengthen its position and role in regional politics, unite its allies — Armenia and Azerbaijan — around it, inspire them with an understanding of the need to end armed confrontation in the conflict zone, and propose a realistic program of joint actions towards its political settlement.
The article reveals the issues of multifaceted cooperation and development of China and Kazakhstan in the framework of the joint construction of “One Belt, One Road” and the economic policy of Kazakhstan “Nurly Zhol” (“Bright Road”).
Aim. Put forward proposals to promote the development of Kazakh-Chinese trade based on a study of the current situation in the development of Kazakh-Chinese relations and cooperation relations within the framework of the “One Belt, One Road” and an analysis of limiting factors.
Tasks. Consider the key ideas underlying the two plans, identify the main scope and areas of cooperation, analyze the prospects for the implementation of the international cooperation project and the achievements achieved so far.
Methods. To compare the practices of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Nurly Zhol Plan, a comparative analysis method was adopted to identify the existing advantages and disadvantages of development. The method of bibliographic data analysis was also used in the article. By searching and studying scientific materials and works of domestic and foreign scientists, deepen the understanding of the impact and features of the One Belt, One Road initiative on Kazakhstan.
Results. On the basis of specific achievements of cooperation, constructive proposals were put forward for the further development of Chinese-Kazakh cooperation. In order to smoothly promote cooperation between the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Bright Road, it is necessary to further improve common procedures and docking mechanisms, to fully use the communication capabilities of the SCO to promote economic cooperation.
Conclusion. One Belt One Road and Nurly Zhol have achieved strong complementarity. The cooperation between them has satisfied the development needs of Kazakhstan and China. But the security of cooperation requires serious attention. China, Kazakhstan, and even the countries of Central Asia should jointly raise security awareness and deepen cooperation in non-traditional security areas within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and deepen the connection between the SCO and other regional security mechanisms.